Mike's musings

Whatever thoughts have been on my mind will probably end up here. Updated weekly, but perhaps more initially as I throw in some older things.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Where do trains disappear to?




Yesterday I was due to take the train from Peterborough to Doncaster at 1626. It was the last train that could get me to Doncaster in time to catch the last train to Aberdeen. Seconds after the 1617 to Edinburgh had pulled out (in fact, the last few carriages were still clearing the platform), the announcement came over the tannoy, and the boards flashed up telling me that the 1626 was cancelled. At what point was it cancelled? When did they know that I wouldn’t be able to get home? It can’t have been at that point, because it would only have been 9 minutes away from the platform, even travelling at 30mph, that would be about 5 miles.

We all know that Japanese trains, are of course, amazing. In the year 2003 to 2004*, JR trains had an average delay of 6 seconds including delays caused by natural disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, and heavy snowfall *the only figures I can find at the moment.


British trains, on the other hand are a complete disaster, badly run and more often cancelled than not.

Or are they? Maybe there’s something more sinister at hand. Perhaps the train companies are covering up the fact that trains are disappearing. An unknown force is simply vanishing trains. So when it gets cancelled 9 minutes before it’s due, it’s because it has dropped off the face of the earth, slipped into a Peterborough triangle or been tractor beamed aboard an alien vessel.



The truth is out there.

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Monday, March 05, 2007

Still Seeing (RED)


I've posted before about not liking the product (RED) concept before, and it's always nice when an expert turns out to have the same thinking as you.

The amount spent just promoting product (RED) is believd to be more than $100 million, but the total raised is around £11 million.

Not great. If I spent that much to raise that little, I suspect I'd be fired. of course, I am a professional fundraiser, and my job is not to sell credit cards, t-shirts or anything else, but that;s the key to this campaign. if it was a campaign to raise money, then it has failed. Dismally. If it was a campaign to raise awareness, like Live8, then I'm not convinced it has suceeded.

But it was neither. According to the site, it is not a charity, it is a business model. To quote " You buy (red) stuff, we get money, buy the pills and distribute them. They take the pills, stay alive and continue to take care of their families and contribute socially and economically to their communities. "

Then it has the audacity to add "If they don't get the pills, they die. WE DON'T WANT THEM TO DIE"

Actually, if they didn't want them to die, I think they might give a little bit more to buy pills. My advice would be to find the products that are the best value, and donate the difference directly. When you donate, don't forget to Gift Aid it (UK taxpayers), and I guarantee you, it'll prevent more people from dying.

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Thursday, March 01, 2007

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics...




... As a bigger brain than mine said. It's most commonly attributed to Disraeli, but often also to Mark Twain. The point being that you can use numbers and figures to tell whatever story you want. And convincingly too.

Another big brain that I'm a fan of is Steven Levitt. It's the way he takes figures and looks at the bigger picture, instead of looking at just the obvious and coming to the same conclusions as everyone else, he does a Sherlock Holmes.

"It is an old maxim of mine that when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth", from The Adventure of the Beryl Coronet.

Of course, Levitt, (and his less well known co-author Stephen J Dubner) can't prove all other factors impossible in all of their work, but they make a good start of looking beyond the obvious.

I've always tried to do the same, but I don't have the same ability as the two Stephens. Still, when I read this, I can't help but wonder where we are being led.

People read headlines and taglines, but rarely full articles , and the way this is presented implies that a person who breaks a driving law is more likely to break other laws. Perhaps it should be seen the other way round. If you habitually committ crimes, I doubt that a driving offence is likely to concern you.