Mike's musings

Whatever thoughts have been on my mind will probably end up here. Updated weekly, but perhaps more initially as I throw in some older things.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics...




... As a bigger brain than mine said. It's most commonly attributed to Disraeli, but often also to Mark Twain. The point being that you can use numbers and figures to tell whatever story you want. And convincingly too.

Another big brain that I'm a fan of is Steven Levitt. It's the way he takes figures and looks at the bigger picture, instead of looking at just the obvious and coming to the same conclusions as everyone else, he does a Sherlock Holmes.

"It is an old maxim of mine that when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth", from The Adventure of the Beryl Coronet.

Of course, Levitt, (and his less well known co-author Stephen J Dubner) can't prove all other factors impossible in all of their work, but they make a good start of looking beyond the obvious.

I've always tried to do the same, but I don't have the same ability as the two Stephens. Still, when I read this, I can't help but wonder where we are being led.

People read headlines and taglines, but rarely full articles , and the way this is presented implies that a person who breaks a driving law is more likely to break other laws. Perhaps it should be seen the other way round. If you habitually committ crimes, I doubt that a driving offence is likely to concern you.

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